There is a serious shortage of pilots and it's only getting worse
Who will fly the next generation of vehicles in the sky?
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The Problem
In the next 2 decades, 645,000 new pilots will need to be hired to meet demand, and 42% of the pilots flying in the U.S. today will retire in the next decade.
Becoming a commercial pilot is time-intensive (200+ hours of flying, not counting instruction and learning), expensive ($200k+ all-in with a college degree), and arduous for little extrinsic value (starting salary for pilots is in the $30k range).
Today
Western airlines fast track pilots through the short-range regional trips and on to longer routes.
Carriers operate their own flight schools for pilots as long as they sign to work with them.
Carriers cut the number of pilots manning long haul flights, shortening overall in-flight rest time for pilots.
Foreign carriers offer higher salaries ($300k+) to attract more pilots to fly for them.
Opportunities
Deploy revenue-share flight education like Lambda School to get more pilots from disadvantaged communities.
Only 6% of pilots are women. Make flying more accessible to women.
Make pilot education more packaged and straightforward. The process can be overwhelming for new candidates with a 70% dropout rate from pilot education programs.
Design hyper performance autonomy for aircraft (Skydio, but larger scale).
Make renting or owning airplanes extremely affordable or free.
Make airplanes simpler – What is the Volkswagen Golf of flying?
Create safe, reliable, and cheaper VTOL designs.
Make operating aircraft extremely cheap for hobbyists to get more people in the skies and inspired to pursue a career in aviation.
Safely and reliably outsource flying (remote flight) to reduce the number of pilots needed on a plane at one time.
Keep general aviation airports open in urban areas to make it easier for urban residents that can afford getting a license to get a license.
Stakeholders
Participants
Air carriers
Private aviation companies
Passengers
Airport systems - Operations, management, and staff
Concessionaires - In flight and in-airport
Support services, mechanics
Pilots, including Unions
Flight schools
Energy industry (oil)
Manufacturers
Ground transportation providers
Tourism industry
Spenders
Spenders are stakeholders that may be likely to commit funding towards reversing this trend.
Airlines (American, Delta, United, Emirates, Southwest). See industry ranking below.
Cargo and delivery companies (FedEx, UPS, Amazon) See industry ranking below.
Manufacturers (Boeing, Airbus)
VTOL service providers (Uber, Lilium, KittyHawk, Airbus, Boeing)
Sticklers
Sticklers are stakeholders that regulate the industries affected by this trend. In some cases, regulators may be the cause of a trend.
The Federal Aviation Administration
The Transportation Security Administration
Local Governments (Noise and emissions-affected residents)
Predictions
Demand for pilots will rise exponentially with the growth and certification of VTOL aircraft.
Much like how most autonomous cars have safety drivers at the wheels, early VTOL designs will have pilots while autonomous flight systems are trained. Autonomy in the skies will take decades to reliably achieve, as it will take hundreds of thousands of flight hours for new modes to become certified.
Private and public scholarships and funds will be deployed to incentivize more people to become pilots
Flying as a pilot will become a lucrative career as demand will out-strip supply.
In an effort to maintain high international standards, the FAA will likely not decrease requirements to becoming a pilot, but might consider it with increasingly more autonomous flight systems and a growing need for pilots.
As major carriers (the big airliners) fast-track pilots through from regional routes to main routes, shorter regional routes will become less frequent. Routes to smaller towns may become more expensive and dense.
Horizons
Trends within and outside of the industry that are converging.
Improving battery efficiency and better autonomy is making VTOL aircraft more realistic with many companies planning to launch some capacity of service by 2023. VTOL will need to be piloted alongside regular commercial flights.
3D printing and materials innovation such as lightweight ceramics and hybrid carbon fibers make lighter, safer aircraft easier to design and manufacture.
Opinion and Analysis
As air mobility innovations like supersonic jets and flying cars take to the skies, pilots will not only need to fulfill commercial airline demand, but also buffer upcoming innovations in new industries. Companies hungry to capture market share will likely amp-up monetary incentives to get more people to become pilots.
The pandemic will put a damper on interest in aviation careers. Flights are slowly increasing, but are still down to ¼ of where they were last year. With low pay and uncertainty around job security, the current class of aspiring pilots who have lived through the pandemic may choose alternative careers.
Alternative land modes such as high-speed rail or hyperloops can help substitute for gaps in regional flights. Some combination of shared electric cars and high-speed rail could fill-in mobility to more suburban or rural areas, but such a project would take an ambitious effort from both public and private organizations.
Industry Knowledge
Stats and interesting information related to the industries most affected.
Largest Airlines by scheduled passenger-kilometers flown (2018)
Largest Airlines by scheduled freight ton-kilometers (2018)
Additional Links
Dive deeper into the analysis with sources used to research this topic.
The pilot shortage is real and airlines must change before it becomes a full-blown crisis (Business Insider)
Analysis of Airport Stakeholders (David Schaar and Lance Sherry)
Joint Programs for High School (FAA)
Pilots Were Once in Short Supply. Now They’re Losing Their Jobs (New York Times)
The US is facing a serious shortage of airline pilots (CNN)
Pilot and Technician Outlook 2019-2038 (Boeing)
Why the World is Running Out of Pilots (Wendover Productions)
The REVERSE Effects of the Worldwide Pilot Shortage (Fit to Fly)
Squeezing Out Small Airports (Los Angeles Times)
Largest airlines in the world (Wikipedia)
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