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The Problem
People have dreamed of going to space for centuries, yet only 573 people have ever been. How far is the commercial aerospace industry from making affordable space tourism a reality?
Today
NASA enabled commercial activities on the International Space Station (ISS) and launched the Commercial Crew Program in association with aerospace manufacturers Boeing (NYSE: BA) and SpaceX to enable human spaceflight.
The Trump Administration wants to revitalize human space exploration activities. Plans include landing on the Moon’s South Pole by 2024, establish a sustainable human presence on the Moon by 2028, and charting a future path for Mars exploration
SpaceX launched the first commercial rocket, delivering two astronauts to the ISS, a milestone for commercial spaceflight and a small step towards Mars colonization.
Virgin Galactic (NYSE: SPCE) vertically integrates astronaut training, aerospace manufacturing, and space travel to make human spaceflight possible. More than 600 people from 60 countries have reserved their spots for a seat on one of Virgin’s missions.
Blue Origin is researching space flight capabilities that will enable future space colonization with a lunar lander.
Bigelow Aerospace develops modular space station habitats that can inflate. Axiom Space is building a habitable private module to be connected to the ISS. Nanoracks has already attached the first permanent, commercial addition to the ISS.
NASA continues to integrate with private companies, granting KBR (NYSE: KBR) the right to train commercial astronauts at NASA facilities.
Space tourism courses are available to prepare business leaders for the space economy.
Opportunities
Develop autonomous spacecraft that are capable of self-navigating, specifically around debris in space, protecting passengers.
Develop AI to help reduce downtime and decrease risks of emergency repair, thus enhancing passenger safety.
Build luxury hotels to accommodate space tourists.
Entertain space tourists with anti-gravity attractions and add-ons. Let passengers upgrade their space experience. For a small extra fee, passengers can roll in bouncing balls, ride zero-gravity motorcycles, race flying hybrid cars, play zero-gravity ping pong, and so on.
Productize vertical takeoff, vertical landing (VTVL) technologies to increase reusability of spacecraft.
Improve closed ecological life-support systems (CELSS) on spacecraft, prolonging the self-sufficiency of space attractions.
Improve in-space electrical propulsion to avoid the need for carrying more fuel up into space.
Stakeholders
Participants
Space explorers (commercial travelers, researchers, etc.)
Spaceliners
Aerospace manufacturers (including manufacturers for propulsion, spacecraft, carrier aircraft, rocket, space station, space suit, etc.)
Spaceports
Space agencies of spacefaring nations
Spenders
Spenders are stakeholders that may be likely to commit funding towards changing this trend.
Spaceliners (Virgin Galactic, SpaceX, Blue Origin, Space Adventures, Boeing, SNC, RSC Energia)
Aerospace manufacturers (Spaceliners above, Bigelow Aerospace, Axiom Space, Orion Span)
Spaceports (e.g. Spaceport America—first spaceport dedicated to commercial space flights)
Space tourism course providers (e.g. Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University)
Sticklers
Sticklers are stakeholders that regulate the industries affected by this trend. In some cases, regulators may be the cause of a trend.
Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS, under United Nations). The Outer Space Treaty.
Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA, under United Nations)
Space agencies of spacefaring nations (NASA of US, Roscosmos of Russia, JAXA of Japan, ESA of Europe, CSA of Canada, CNSA of China, and more)
Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation (FAA/AST)
National Space Council under the White House.
Predictions
Human space travel will be expensive for a while. Space Adventures flew a passenger into space for $20 million; a spacewalk required another $15 million.
The first tourist that SpaceX will fly to the Moon is a Japanese billionaire, Yusaku Maezawa.
Axiom Space prices a trip to the ISS in a SpaceX capsule at $55 million.
Virgin Galactic plans to charge a “lower” price of $250,000 – rumors indicate they may charge more.
A low-Earth orbit economic ecosystem will gradually emerge, including space hotels, in-space research and manufacturing facilities, and more. Commercial destinations and “entertainment” options will pop up as the technology advances.
The pandemic’s acceleration of renewable energy adoption will be the first step towards transitioning heavier fuels to more applications such as space travel.
Horizons
Trends within and outside of the industry that are converging.
3D printing for spacesuits will reduce mass while retaining high mobility. 3D printing also allows for potential in-mission fabrication and repair of suits.
Cryonics (freezing human bodies) may make it possible for people to onboard an interstellar ark starship and participate in galactic colonization.
Carbon nanotubes could make space elevators possible, increasing payload capacity, reducing launch cost, and making the journey smoother and safer.
New propulsion methods such as laser beams and thermal nuclear could change the way spacecraft move, potentially even making them faster than chemical propulsion could.
Opinion and Analysis
Supply, not demand, will be the limiting factor for space tourism as it is common to see commercial spaceliners’ goals delayed.
Sustained, long-term funding is critical for space tourism. Spaceliners typically suffer from a high cash burn rate, given low to no revenue generation in the early years.
“Sustainable” planning is necessary for long term industry success. Economically, tourism focuses on increasing customer base by contracting costs and expanding passenger payloads. Environmentally, space tourism poses a risk to the increasing space debris problem.
In an increasingly media-driven society, the Overview Effect may be the awesome, “viral” experience that boosts consumer demand for space tourism.
Industry Knowledge
Source: NASA
Additional Links
Dive deeper into the analysis with sources used to research this topic.
Rocketeers: How a Visionary Band of Business Leaders, Engineers, and Pilots is Boldly Privatizing Space (Michael Belfiore)
Destination Space: How Space Tourism Is Making Science Fiction a Reality (Kenny Kemp).
How to Make a Spaceship: A Band of Renegades, an Epic Race, and the Birth of Private Spaceflight (Julian Guthrie)
The Space Barons: Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and the Quest to Colonize the Cosmos (Christian Davenport)
Rocket Billionaires: Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and the New Space Race. (Tim Fernholz)
The Three-Body Problem (Cixin Liu)
The Overview Effect: Space Exploration and Human Evolution (Library of Flight) (Frank White)
Is the future of space travel just for super rich people? (CNN)
Supply, not the sky, is the limit for space tourism (NSR)
Space tourism: Here’s what Central Florida needs for this new venture to take off (The Business Journals)
Will LandSpace be China’s SpaceX? (The Space Review)
Super fast travel using outer space could be $20 billion market, disrupting airlines, UBS predicts (CNBC)
Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg foresees busy commercial ‘ecosystem’ in Earth orbit (GeekWire)
NASA’s Commercial Crew Program is a fantastic deal (The Planetary Society)
The Economics of Space Tourism: NASA and the Entrepreneur. By Christopher Carr (Duke)
Your guide to NASA’s budget (The Planetary Society)
NanoRacks lays out vision for turning rockets into space outposts, starting with Independence-1 (GeekWire)
The 12 greatest challenges for space exploration (Wired)
Have space fever? Here are five jobs that will take you closer to the stars (USA Today)