2021 – The year of switching gears
The shortage of bike supply and the impending shift to cycling
These are the main parts of The B Line’s report on the Bike Shortage. Get the full report available for free download right here.
The Problem
There is a pandemic-driven bike buying spree—pedal-bike sales increased 63% in 2020 compared to 2019, and 190% for electric bikes. Is cycling going to be a sustainable trend even into the aftermath of the pandemic? And what does it take to normalize bike riding vs. cars as an alternative?
Today
New York City launched a $58.4 million Green Wave plan while the Regional Plan Association introduced “Five Borough Bikeway Plan”, installing more protected bike lanes and connected cycling network, redesigning intersections to make turns safer for cyclists, and stationing more law enforcement at high-crash intersections.
Many US cities adopted Vision Zero—a strategy aiming to eliminate all traffic fatalities and severe injuries—and protect cyclists using measures such as building separated bike lanes with raise crosswalks.
The US National Parks Service updated regulations to allow e-bikes up to 750W in all national parks, though a lawsuit was filed to restore e-bike ban.
Bike-energy promotes establishing e-charging infrastructure that fits e-bikes of all brands to relieve cyclists’ range anxiety.
German e-bike company Bosch eBike Systems empowers remote diagnostics, easing the pain of e-bike repair and maintenance.
British security services company G4S mounts GPS into e-bikes to track and trace their locations in case of theft, which facilitates the retrieval process.
Dutch bike manufacturer VanMoof solves supply chain and customer support challenges due to skyrocketing demand by having its own production and distribution systems.
Strava adds gamification to cycling by allowing cyclists to track, analyze and share performance and compete with fellow bikers within the community.
Vivacity uses Artificial Intelligence to capture and classify live transport usage to help urban planners gather traffic insights and improve transport systems.
Helmets take on new innovations to make them more appealing to a wider audience of customers. Lumos is building smart bicycle helmets with integrated lights and turn signals; HEXR introduces helmets with a honeycomb cell inner shell, which is able to buckle and bend under impact; Specialized makes helmets with gyroscope sensors, which detect collisions and pair with Specialized’s Ride app via bluetooth to send alerts to predefined contacts; Gamin rolls out cycling radars with detection alerts for approaching cars; Hövding produces wearable airbags that reduce the chances of neck and head injury in accidents.
Opportunities
Use robotic fabric technology to manufacture lightweight, foldable bikes that are easy to carry around.
Establish open source standards for e-bike batteries, the environment by improving the manufacturing, reuse and recycling of battery packs between models.
Set up cyclist-specific smart mobility platforms, which allow bikers to share among themselves real-time information (road conditions, building sites, unexpected accidents, etc.) on top of what navigation apps already provide.
Employ 3D printing for specifically e-bike manufacturing, reducing cost, improving quality, enhancing safety, and maximizing sustainability.
Urban planners can motivate cyclists to fit their bikes and accessories with location and motion sensors to better understand cyclist journeys and optimize investments in bike lanes and reduce safety concerns on those lanes.
Remove battery packs and replace lithium with chemicals of less environmental and economic concerns.
Scale the concept of a bike-share co-op between apartment buildings or other secure locations to minimize vehicle theft.
Ever since Uber offloaded Jump to Lime, there hasn’t been a dominant dockless shared eBike player in the space. There’s an opportunity to become the dominant eBike shared bike operator. Wheels offers a sit-down scooter, but isn’t quite a bikeshare operator.
Predictions
E-bike demand will continue to rise after the pandemic-inspired buying frenzy, thanks to favorable government policies and increasing consumer preferences for moving in an eco-friendly way.
Mergers and acquisitions will continue in the currently fragmented cycling industry globally as global brands strive to expand their market reach and absorb smaller niche-companies building strong followings.
Bike-share companies will switch gears to prioritize profitability over growth and expansion due to declining ridership. Any existing bike-share schemes will likely electrify in the next year.
E-bike subscription service—a cheaper option for cyclists who can barely afford e-bikes—will jump on the bandwagon of the demand boom, with Swapfiet and Dance available in Europe while Bird and Lime prove the scooter form-factor.
Opinion and Analysis
Employing an omnichannel strategy with both an online and physical presence will help bike manufacturers increase customer touchpoints and ease cyclists’ pain associated with assembling and repairing bikes.
E-bike companies are vulnerable to tariff increases because the vast majority of manufacturing takes place in China now. They should consider manufacturing in the US and diversifying the supply chain to other less-tariff-heavy countries.
Traffic fatalities will unfortunately continue for the foreseeable future as cities slowly build better biking infrastructure.
To normalize cycling even after the pandemic, city planners should take a multipronged approach to easing adoption. This approach may include: constructing separated bike lanes, connecting existing bike networks, maintaining road surface for cycling during winter season, and providing incentives for people to switch to biking.
New York City still has a long way to go for “copenhagenization”: nearly half of all journeys to school and work in Copenhagen take place on bicycles, while fewer than 1% New Yorkers commute by bike; female bike commuters take up 52% in Copenhagen compared to 29% in NYC. More solid and systematic policy changes together with execution specifics are needed to expedite NYC’s transformation.
Industry Knowledge
Find your next bike with more B Line
Discover over 50 stakeholders, what’s on the horizon, additional links, and your next bike in the full report. Presented in a beautiful 8.5in x 11in free PDF available for printing and framing at your leisure.
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